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Mark J. Valencia:
By Mark J. Valencia - 08 Jun 2017
Defense ministers, officials and analysts flocked to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore to hear the US and its allies bash China, who wisely sent a relatively low-level delegation. Lost in the bluster and bravado were fundamental questions regarding the strategic future of Asia.
By Mark J. Valencia - 01 Jun 2017
By Mark J. Valencia - 19 May 2017
US President Donald Trump’s flip-flopping policy regarding China’s claims and actions in the South China Sea have fundamental implications for the security paradigm in the region and perhaps beyond.
An article by James Holmes of the US Naval War College in The National Interest made several false allegations regarding China’s actions and ascribed nefarious motives to its declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea.
The US flies hundreds of ISR missions every year to collect communications between the target country’s command-and-control centers and radar and weapons systems. The initial deployment of the Carl Vinson strike force was to the South China Sea. Are these probes and the deployment a violation of the UN Charter?
Some US and foreign media have used the information to convince the Trump administration that China presents an imminent threat to US interests in the South China Sea. But the burgeoning drumbeat for the US to confront China should be considered with a healthy dose of skepticism.
If negotiations resulted in a “freeze” in North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and a lowering of the risk of war, South Korea and Japan would probably be better off than living under constant threat. To obtain this concession from North Korea, the US would have to make genuine compromises.
Analysts trying to parse US policy in the Trump era regarding the South China Sea must be prepared for stark contradictions and intellectual whiplash. It is too early to draw conclusions regarding US-China relations in the South China Sea or in general.
In the run-up to Donald Trump’s inauguration as President of the United States, advocates of a more aggressive US foreign policy towards China unleashed a barrage of hawkish commentaries and proposals. Most comments focused on China’s behavior in the South China Sea.