This essay is a preliminary analysis of the possible impacts the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling on July 12, 2016 will have on the South China Sea situation, China-US relations and China’s relations with its neighbors.
Today, Western democracy is trapped with its self-inflicted damage. Voting works if and only if voters understand what it is really about and the Brexit poll clearly demonstrated that the direction of fundamental policy choices could be out of the control of the people at large.
The June 23 Brexit referendum saw the UK vote to leave the European Union. The exit decision shocked the world with implications not only in the political and economic arenas of the UK and EU, but which also has far reaching repercussions beyond Europe.
The arbitration proceedings that the Philippines initiated against China more than three years ago regarding issues in the South China Sea should soon reach its end, and the arbitral tribunal is expected to rule shortly.
The fundamental guarantee of the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is not the US or its military presence, but China, the coastal states, and regional countries’ commitment to peace, stability, prosperity, and development.
According to the Pentagon, on May 17, 2016, two Chinese J-11 fighter jets intercepted a US Navy EP-3 intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance plane on a “routine patrol” in “international air space” about 100 nautical miles south of China’s mainland coast and 50 nm east of Hainan.
Three years after it was launched, the curtain is coming down on the Philippines’ South China Sea arbitration case. Now is the time to take a step back from all the hustle and bustle to see through the past few years’ misrepresentations and distractions and get a clear understanding of the South China Sea issue.
Japan has common interests with China in stopping nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia. The H-bomb test may then end up as a common rallying point that can bring Japan, China, and South Korea together facing a common threat.
China’s claims, policies and actions in the South China Sea have been severely criticized by other claimants as well as external maritime powers. The protagonists are stepping up their public relations campaigns to bolster their positions. Much of the rhetoric fits the allegory of the pot(s) calling the kettle black as China’s major critics have undertaken similar actions.